摘要
中国是一个旱灾频发的国家,旱灾已经开始威胁到农业生产和粮食安全。近年来,在暖干化背景下,中国旱灾呈现不断加重趋势。因此,研究农业旱灾对中国粮食安全具有重要意义。文章选择CMI为农业干旱指标,以气象观测数据和土壤有效持水能力数据为基础,在确定作物生长季的基础上,计算ACMI指数,揭示中国农业旱灾致灾风险空间格局。结果表明:在全球变暖背景下,中国有整体变旱的趋势,农业旱灾致灾强度和致灾风险均呈现南低北高的空间格局;黄淮海平原是中国农业旱灾高致灾风险区,且具有不断加重的趋势,应予以高度关注。
China experiences frequent, spatially extensive, and lasting droughts which greatly threaten its agricultural production and food security. In the past decades, with a regional warming and drying trend in northern China, agricultural drought is becoming more and more frequent. So it is important to study the spatial pattern of agricultural drought hazard risk, ACMI during the growth period of crops is calculated based on meteorological observation data and available water holding capacity data. The results show that, in the context of global warming, China is becoming drying as a whole. The agricultural drought hazard risk is high in north and low in south. And we should pay great attention to Huanghuaihai plain which is the center of high hazard risk.
出处
《新疆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2013年第2期35-40,共6页
Journal of Xinjiang Normal University(Natural Sciences Edition)
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)<全球环境风险与气候灾害的宏观格局>(2012CB955403-1)
