摘要
运用产业结构层次系数指标描述产业结构的演进,以1978—2011年的统计数据为分析对象,通过变量平稳性检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果检验等方法,对山东省产业结构演进与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:从长期来看,产业结构层次系数每增加1个百分点,GDP就会增加6.64个百分点;从短期来看,产业结构层次系数每增加1个百分点,GDP会随之增加0.427个百分点.由此提出促进产业结构演进的建议.
An empirical study has been made on the relationship between the evolution of industrial structures and economic growth in Shandong Province,based on statistics from 1978 to 2011. The coefficients of industrial strata underlying the evolution are illustrated. After conducting a stationary test,a co-integration analysis and a Granger causality test of the variables,the authors have found that： i） there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between industrial evolution and economic growth,ii） industrial evolution causes the economic growth,and iii） industrial evolution may promote the economic growth. Based on the afore- mentioned study,it is very essential that Shandong Province should make efforts to optimize its industrial structures and to ensure a rapid development of its economy.
出处
《甘肃科学学报》
2013年第2期145-148,共4页
Journal of Gansu Sciences
关键词
产业结构
经济增长
协整分析
山东省
industrial structure
economic growth
co-integration analysis
Shandong province
