摘要
本文根据历史地震资料,对大地震的活动时间作了统计分析研究。结果发现大地震活动基本上是按着25n(n=1,2,3,…自然数)年倍律的时间规律发生的,其中我国在由倍律划分的地震活跃期内发生的地震数约占总地震数的81％,是地震平静期内地震数的4.3倍。我国6级以上强震及世界大地震也在一定程度上符合这种倍律。这项研究指出,近年我国仍处在大震平静期中,今后第一个大震活跃期将出现在2000年前后,应十分重视该活跃期内我国发生数次大地震及多次6级以上强震的危险性。
This paper reported the statistical-analytical research on the activity time of large earthquakes based on data of historical earthquakes. Results show that the occurrences of large earthquakes are basically according to the time law of 25n (n=1,2,3, ... natural number) year multiplying power, of which the earthquake number occurring in the seismically active periods divided by the multiplying power makes up 81% of the total number of earthquakes in China; this is 4.3 times of the total earthquakes in seismically quiet periods. Strong earthquakes M≥6 in China and world are also consistent with this multiplying power to a certain extent, and it is thought that this is a rather important periodic phenomenon of objective existence. This research pointed out that recently China is still in the quiet period of large earthquakes, the first active period of large earthquakes in the future will appear around 2000. We should pay much attention to the risk of several large earthquakes and many M>6.0 strong shocks occurring in coming active period in China.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第5期26-32,共7页
Earthquake
