摘要
利用重力固体潮观测中的潮汐信息预报地震是鉴于大震前在震源区及其孕震区存在着较大范围的区域应力场,伴随着应变与地壳弹性变化。 本文根据推导的潮汐因子与波速变化关系,从理论上探讨固体湖预报地震的可能性,同时分析了维涅迪柯夫和别尔采夫两种调和分析方法及应用,通过计算结果对比表明,资料线性稳定可靠时,两种方法都能取得较好的结果,其日均值的月结果比较一致。最后,通过固体潮δ因子变化研究了几次地震前的特征及其在中短期预报中的作用。
Prediction of earthquakes using tidal information in the gravitational earth tide observation is in view of that there existed a regional stress field in a relatively large range in the focal region and its seismogenic area prior to large earthquakes, accompanying changes of strain and crustal elastic deformation.According to the derived relation between the tital factor and wave-velocity change, the possibility of using earth-tide for predicting earthquakes has theoretically explored in this paper. Two kinds of harmonic analysis methods by Vinedikoff and Beltseff are applied for this purpose. The comparison of calculated results show that if the observed data are stable and reliable, both methods mentioned above may obtain good results, and the monthly results of daily mean values are relatively consistent. Finally, the characteristics of the δ factor variation of earth tide before several shocks have been analyzed, and their application to mid-term and short-term prediction has been discussed
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第1期8-14,共7页
Earthquake
