摘要
系统分析方法是以系统论、控制论和信息论为基础的方法性学科。本文以山西郭庄泉岩溶水系统为例,采用系统分析的方法研究该岩溶水系统的结构及其输入、输出特征。针对其已成为自然—人工复合地下水系统的特点,首次采用了多输入—单输出数学模型建立人工开采条件下的泉流量动态预测方程,同时,充分挖掘并利用有效信息,对岩溶水系统结构进行辩识。结合灰色拓扑预测降雨量,对郭庄泉岩溶水系统1986～2000年的泉流量进行了长期预报。
The method of systematic analysis can bring to light the objective relations and motion laws in nature from various aspects , so it has provided a new analysis method for the research of karst groundwater system at present . This artical takes Guozhuang karst groundwater system as an example ,using the method of systematic analysis to make the research of characteristics of the karst groundwater system structure and inputs and outputs of the system . Due to the feet that the system has become a nature-human compound system ,we have for the first time made use of multinput-single output mathematical model for building a prediction equation of spring discharge in the case of draining karst water . And a lot of effective information about the system has been used sufficiently to identify the system structure . After using grey-topology to predict future precipitation , We have predicted the spring discharge of Guozhuang karst groundwater system from 1986 to 2000.
出处
《地球科学（中国地质大学学报）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第1期51-60,共10页
Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences
关键词
岩溶水
系统分析
泉
流量
灰色预测
karst groundwater system , systematic analysis of spring discharge , delayed time , grey -topology prediction .
