摘要
针对肯特法中评价指标分值累加会隐藏指标低分值情况的不足,采用将指标分值转化为失效概率的方法对肯特管道风险评价算法进行改进。首先将评价指标得分值划分为5个区间,每个区间对应相应的失效可能性等级;然后将失效可能性等级转化为模糊数,再将模糊数转化为指标的失效概率;最后将所有指标的失效概率进行相加得到管道失效总概率,从而计算出风险值。通过实例计算表明,肯特管道风险评价改进算法更能反映管道的实际风险情况。
In view of the defect that score accumulation of the assessment indexes in Kent risk assessment can conceal low score of the indexes, this paper adopts the method of changing index score to failure probability to improve Kent pipeline risk assessment algorithm. First, the assessment index scores are divided into 5 intervals, each of which corresponds to the relevant failure probability level. Second, the failure probability levels are altered to fuzzy numbers which are subsequently changed into the index failure probabilities. Finally, all the index failure probabilities are added to achieve the total failure probability, and thus VaR can be worked out. Calculation shows that the improved algorithm of Kent pipeline risk assessment can better report the actual risk of the pipelines.
出处
《石油工业技术监督》
2013年第6期1-4,共4页
Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry
关键词
管道
肯特风险评价法
失效概率
改进算法
pipeline
Kent risk assessment
failure probability
improved algorithm
