摘要
大桥船撞(SCB)风险评估与预警是预防与控制水上交通事故的重要内容之一,有助于实现桥梁安全,减少SCB事故的发生。在SCB风险因素辨识和梳理的基础上,建立SCB风险因素体系。然后,通过模糊推理系统(FIS)方法构建SCB动态风险评估模型,包括固有风险、风险上升修正因子、风险下降修正因子。再者,提出SCB动态风险评估系统(ASDR)的设计方案,并开发评估系统。最后,以上海长江SCB的ASDR为例,运用所开发的系统开展模拟试验。试验结果表明,用基于FIS的ASDR能够评估出SCB风险整体水平。
It was held by the authors that risk assessment and early-warning of SCB play an important part in prevention and control of marine traffic accident. Factors affecting SCB were recognized and classi- fied. Risk assessment models of SCB were built based on FIS, including an assessment model of inherent risk, a model of risk increasing correction factor and a model of risk reducing factor. A design proposal of an assessment system of dynamic risk of SCB was formulated and the system was developed. Simulated experiment was conducted with the assessment system of dynamic risk of ship collision with Shanghai Yan- gtze river bridge. The experiment shows that with the ASDR based on FIS the whole risk situation of SCB can be assessd.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期120-126,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51279099)
上海曙光计划(12SG40)
上海海事大学校基金资助(20120057)
上海海事大学研究生创新基金资助(yc2012067)
上海海事大学优秀博士学位论文培育项目(2013bxlp006)
关键词
水上交通系统
大桥船撞(SCB)
风险因素体系
模糊推理系统(FIS)
marine traffic system
ship collision with bridge（SCB）
risk factor system
fuzzy inference system （FIS）
assessment system on dynamic risk （ASDR）
