摘要
城市是碳排放的密集区域,城市化是我国碳排放量增长的重要因素。采用1985-2009年的中国城市化水平数据和同期中国碳排放量的测算数据,运用相关分析、协整检验、格兰杰因果分析和误差修正模型对中国城市化与碳排放的关系进行检验。中国城市化水平与碳排放量具有很高的正相关性,两者之间存在着长期的协整关系,城市化水平的提高是碳排放量增加的重要原因,但碳排放量不是城市化水平的格兰杰原因。城市化水平对碳排放的影响具有滞后性,短期影响较小,长期影响显著。利用脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解模型对中国城市化水平与碳排放量进行动态模拟,分析其在长期和短期均衡关系的相互作用机制和影响程度。提出中国实现低碳城市化的建议和对策。
Cities are concentrated regions of carbon emission, and urbanization is important factor of carbon emission growth in China. This paper utilizes China＇ s urbanization level data from 1985 to 2009 and calculation result of China＇ s carbon emission over the same period and applies correlation analysis, cointegration analysis, Stewart Granger causality analysis and error correction model for the data inspection. The result shows that there exists strong correlation and long - term cointegration relationship between Chinese urbanization and carbon emission, the increase of urbanization level is an important cause of carbon emission growth, but the carbon emission is not the Granger cause of urbanization level. Then the authors apply the impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition for dynamic simulation and analyze the interaction mechanism and the degree of influence between Chinese urbanization and carbon emission. Finally, some recommendations and measures of lowcarbon urbanization in China are put forward.
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期26-32,共7页
Population and Development
基金
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET100460)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助项目(JUSRP311A07)
关键词
城市化
碳排放
能源消费
低碳经济
urbanization
carbon emissions
energy consumption
low-carbon economy
