摘要
除发达国家在新技术革命时期外 ,几乎所有发展中和转型中国家都发生了通货膨胀 ,而中国却出现了通货紧缩与经济增长相伴随的现象 ,并集中表现为结构性通缩。其原因在于核算性偏差和体制性压抑 (主要是价格管制性因素和准入市场壁垒 )造成了需求结构和供给结构的严重扭曲 ,一方面表现为食品在居民消费支出中占一半左右 ,而提供食品的农业在GDP中的比重不到 2 0 % ;另一方面表现为增量改革带来的大量资金和财富不能有效配置 ,只能在工业制造业中过度竞争 ,从而压抑了增长最快的服务业的供给和需求。考虑到中国统计核算中存在着工农业增长率高估和服务业增加值低估的缺陷 ,不仅总量会出现低估 ,结构扭曲变形加剧。据此 ,中国宏观经济分析和宏观调节不能只着眼于总量问题 ,短期问题和政策问题必须兼顾长期和短期 ,协调总量和结构 ,着力于体制和政策联动 。
Most of the nations who have taken transitions in the development and institution are undergoing inflation to some extent,but there are both deflation and rapid growth in China.The cause in China is the severe distortion in both demand and supply structures resulting from the control of prices and industrial barriers to enter.In one way,the share of food in household consumption is almost 50% while the proportion of agriculture providing food over GDP is less than 20%.In another way,a lot of capital and assets brought about by incremental reform cannot be allocated efficiently.The over\|heated competition in manufacture industry is one of its results and it depresses the supply and demand of service industry of the fastest growth rate.Because of the errors of overestimated industrial growth rate and underestimated added value of service industry,there are underestimation in aggregate output and distortion in economic structure.Therefore,the analysis and adjustments of Chinese macroeconomy cannot only refer to short term,aggregate volume and policy factors.Long term,structure and institution elements should be taken into account.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2000年第9期3-15,共13页
Economic Research Journal
