摘要
针对目前城市轨道交通客流预测精度较低的状况,分析了轨道交通客流的影响因素和成长规律,为中国大城市轨道交通客流预测结果的合理性判断提供依据。分析了轨道交通沿线用地、交通衔接、轨道交通服务水平以及票价政策变化对客流的影响机理和影响程度,并对国内外一些典型线路和全网的客流增长趋势进行统计分析。结果表明:单条轨道交通线路的客流在初期有个缓慢的发育过程,增长较缓慢,其中第1条轨道交通线的客流培育期将更长,在经历发育期之后,客运量会加速增长;轨道交通网络化效应明显,相交的新线路投入运营,会使原有线路客流迅速增长,并且使得新线路的客流起点比较高;全网客运量呈稳定增长趋势,客运强度则会出现短暂性的波动。
In order to improve the current low prediction accuracy of urban rail transit passenger flow,this paper analyzed the influencing factors and growth law related to the urban rail transit passenger flow and provided judgment basis for the rational urban rail transit passenger prediction of big cities in our nation.This paper specifically analyzed the influencing mechanism and influencing extent of land use along lines,traffic convergence,urban rail transit service level,and fare policy change on urban rail transit passenger flow.The passenger flow growth trend statistical analysis of some typical lines and networks at home and abroad was conducted.The results indicate that the single line passenger flow has a slow developing process at first,and especially the first line passenger flow developing time is longer but after the developing process,the passenger flow will grow quickly;the rail network effect is significant,because the operation of the new intersecting line will make passenger flow of original lines grow quickly and can also increase the new line passenger flow starting point;the network passenger flow grows steadily and the passenger flow may fluctuate in short time.3 tabs,7 figs,10 refs.
出处
《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期69-75,共7页
Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(5128064)
陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(2013JK0949)
西安建筑科技大学学科建设重点培育计划项目(XK201213)
关键词
交通工程
轨道交通
客流增长
影响因素
成长规律
traffic engineering
rail transit
passenger flow development
influencing factor
development trend
