摘要
文章分析了人民币汇率升值压力演进历程的三个阶段,并结合中国的贸易收支、国内外利差和中国的通货膨胀情况这三类经济基本面因素研究了人民币升值压力的来源。分析发现,近期人民币汇率已经不存在大幅低估,甚至可能存在高估的可能,无需一次性大幅升值。人民币升值压力主要源于以美国为首的其他国家的外部施压。因此,中国必须认清升值压力的本质,继续坚持"自主性"掌控人民币汇率形成机制的改革路径,必要时可实施反制措施。
This article is intended for analyzing the three evolutionary stages of the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressures, and discussing the source of the RMB appreciation pressure integrated with in three types of economic fundamentals, such as China’s trade balance, domestic and foreign interest rate differentials and China’s inflation situation. Through analysis outcome, the RMB exchange rate was not substantially under-valu-ed; on the other hand, it may be even over-valued. As a result, one-off revaluation is not necessary. RMB appreciation pressure is mainly due to external pressure from the US and other countries. Therefore, China must recognize the essence of appreciation pressure, adhere to the path of reform of autonomous control of the RMB exchange rate, and can implement counter-measures if necessary.
出处
《太平洋学报》
CSSCI
2013年第4期63-70,共8页
Pacific Journal
基金
中央财经大学研究生科研创新项目"NOEM框架下人民币实际汇率的决定与合理性的国际历史比较研究"(201206)的研究成果
关键词
人民币汇率争议
演进历程
升值压力
RMB exchange rate controversy
evolution
appreciation pressure
