摘要
采用我国1978-2010年时间序列数据,运用基于向量自回归模型的JJ协整检验和向量误差修正模型方法,对二氧化碳排放量与经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,我国经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间在长期呈显著的正相关关系,经济增长是引起我国二氧化碳排放量增长的原因。由此可以推断,随着经济发展水平的不断提高,我国将会面临越来越严重的减排压力。因此,采取必要措施来减少二氧化碳排放量意义重大。
This paper examines the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in China during the period 1978-2010.Using co-integration and error correction modeling techniques based on VAR,The paper find that carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth are strongly interrelated;GDP growth exhibits a significant positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the long term.Therefore,the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions represents a serious challenge for China’s economy.The paper maintains it is significant to reduce carbon emissions by adopting necessary countermeasures.
出处
《华东交通大学学报》
2013年第2期105-109,共5页
Journal of East China Jiaotong University
基金
江西省科技厅科技支撑计划项目(2010BSB03200)
关键词
二氧化碳减排
经济增长
协整检验
carbon dioxide emissions
economic growth
co-integration test
