摘要
文章首先阐述财务风险、财务危机和财务预警理论,指出建立以现金流量为基础的财务预警的优势,接着按照随机原则选取上海证券交易所54家资产规模相近的ST和非ST上市公司为样本,基于2010年的财报数据,运用因子分析法提取公共因子,并在此基础上建立了F预警模型,进而对该模型进行有效性测试。研究结果表明:以现金流量指标为基础的财务预警模型能够对企业的财务危机起到有效的预警作用。
After the analysis of the financial risk, the financial crisis and the financial early warning theo- ry,the paper highlights the advantages of establishing a cash flow-based financial early warning. 54 ST and non-ST listed companies,which are almost the same size,are randomly sampled,and based on 2010 financial statements,the factor analysis approach is used to extract the common factors and an F-warning model is re- sultantly established and tested in terms of validity. The research result shows that the financial early warning model based on cash flow indicators can play an effective role in early warning of the enterprise＇s financial crisis.
出处
《常州工学院学报》
2013年第1期62-68,共7页
Journal of Changzhou Institute of Technology
基金
江苏省教育厅2011年高校哲学社会科学基金(2011SJD630021)
常州工学院校级科研基金(YN1229)
关键词
现金流量
财务危机
财务预警
cash flow
financial crisis
financial early warning
