摘要
为了减少北京冬季非职业性CO中毒(以下简称CO中毒)事件,搜集整理了北京城近郊区16个急救中心2002—2005年的逐日煤气中毒人数,经过研究冬半年(10月至翌年4月)逐日CO中毒人次与北京观象台气象要素以及北京周边(河北省8个气象站)海平面气压场的相关关系,采用准多元回归指数概率分级技术,建立了CO中毒指数(4分级)预报及相应风险水平评估模式。结果发现,CO中毒人次有明显的季节变化,每年1—3月中毒人数偏高,10月和4月相对较低;CO中毒气象指数24、48和72h预报时效的历史拟合率达50.2%～60.5%(预报等级完全正确),预报与实况误差小于等于1级的历史拟合率为85.2%～88.2%。该研究结果经过2008年1月至2009年4月在电视、报纸、电台和手机短信等媒体中的应用,在科学预防一氧化碳中毒事件发生,为北京市煤气中毒事件和死亡人数下降7%发挥了作用。
In order to reduce the number of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events during winter in Beijing,the data of the daily number of CO-poisoned patients from 16 emergency centers of the Beijing urban area from 2002 to 2005 was collected.The correlation between daily number of CO-poisoned patients in the Beijing urban area in the winter half year(October to next April) and meteorological elements from the Beijing observatory,as well as the sea level pressure field data of areas around Beijing(8 weather stations in Hebei Province),are studied.Using the method of quasi-multiple regression index probability classification,the CO poisoning index(4 classes) forecast model and the corresponding CO poisoning risk level assessment model are established.The results show that the number of CO-poisoned patients varied obviously and seasonally,higher from January to March and relatively low from October to April of the next year.The historical fitting rate of completely correct and less than 1 class forecast of CO poisoning meteorological index for 24,48 and 72 hours reached 50.2% to 60.5% and 85.2% to 55.2%,respectively.From January 2008 to April 2009,the research findings had been used in TV,newspaper,broadcast and mobile weather service.
出处
《气象科技》
2013年第2期384-388,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
北京区域气象中心基金项目资助
关键词
CO中毒预警
气象指数
预报
CO poisoning warning,meteorological index,forecast
