摘要
根据流域气候特征及年内首末两场洪水的来水规律 ,挑选出与预报对象关系最密切的气象因子作为预报因子 ,首先研究趋势预报 ,然后应用逐步判别法筛选因子 ,最后建立预报模型 .研究发现 ,前期的月平均降水、月平均气温、月平均北太平洋海温因子是影响水口流域首末两场洪水的主要气象因子 .
The first and last flood prediction for one year is of significance to production planning, flood prevention, and management and planning of comprehensive utilizations of water resources. Based on the climate characteristics of the area under study and the distribution law of the first and last flood in a year, the factors closely related with prediction are selected, the prediction of tendency is studied, and a model for prediction is established. The model has been tested and the results of prediction are satisfactory. It is found that the monthly average temperature, the monthly average pricipitation and the monthly average Northern Pacific ocean temperature are important factors affecting the first and last flood in this watershed.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
2000年第5期85-87,共3页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
关键词
水口水电厂
洪水
预报模型
shuikou water power plant
flood
forecast model
