摘要
文章从金融结构约束的观点,运用计量经济学的方法,对中国金融结构、经济结构与消费波动的关系作了实证研究。Granger因果检验表明,短期内消费波动是金融结构变化的Granger原因,消费波动是经济结构变化的Granger原因。从长期来看,中国金融结构、经济结构与消费波动之间存在唯一长期均衡关系,经济结构变化是金融结构变化的原因,消费波动对金融结构、经济结构的变化随着时间的推移,其影响力逐渐增强。因此,增加消费能力对中国经济持续健康发展具有重要的战略意义。
Viewing from China＇s financial structure constraints,this article discusses the relationship among financial structure, economic structure and consumption volatility with econometric method. The Granger causality test shows that in the short term, the consumption volatility is the Granger reason of changes in the financial structure, while the consumption volatility is the Granger reason of changes in the economic structure. In the long run, there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship among China＇ s financial structure, economic structure and consumption volatility. The economic structure change is the reason of the variation of the financial structure. The influence of the consumption volatility on the economic structure and financial structure gradually strengthens over time. Therefore, the increase of consumption has important stra- tegic significance to the sustained and healthy development of China＇s economy.
出处
《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期204-209,共6页
Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences
基金
国家社科基金资助项目(07AJL003)
关键词
金融结构
经济结构
消费波动
GRANGER因果检验
financial structure
economic structure
consumption volatility
Granger causality test
