摘要
电力系统元件可靠性参数如故障率和修复率等具有明显的不确定性特征,但传统元件重要度辨识方法却假定元件可靠性参数为已知常数。应用模糊数描述元件修复率和故障率等统计参数的不准确性,通过相应模糊数运算法则计算了系统元件的模糊重要度指标,并采用重心法、中值法和α-截集法等去模糊方法,将模糊重要度指标进行归一化表达,可有效辨识参数不确定时对系统可靠性影响显著的元件,揭示了元件可靠性参数的模糊性对系统可靠性指标的影响。通过对RBTS和IEEE-RTS79系统的元件模糊重要度指标的计算和分析,辨识了系统的薄弱环节,验证了模糊重要度方法的正确性和有效性。
The reliability parameters of bulk power system components, such as failure rate and repair rate, are char- acteristic of uncertainty, which are supposed to be a known constant in the traditional methods of importance identifi- cation. In this paper, the uncertainty of these statistical parameters is described with fuzzy number; the fuzzy impor- tance indices of components are calculated based on the calculation rules of fuzzy number. The defuzzification tech- niques, including gravity center method, mean value method and a-cut method, are applied to these fuzzy importance indices for the normalized expression. This method can effectively identify the weak component which may greatly af- fects the system reliability and uncovers the effect of fuzzy parameters on the reliability indices. Finally, the weak components are identified through the calculation of the component fuzzy importance indices of RBTS and IEEE- RTS79 systems, verifying the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2013年第5期1056-1061,共6页
East China Electric Power
关键词
大电力系统
可靠性评估
模糊重要度
去模糊化
bulk power system
reliability evaluation
fuzzy importance
defuzzification
