摘要
以复杂系统科学为指导,在研究非常规突发事件概念和特征的基础上,以模糊情景演化分析方法来解析非常规突发事件的演化过程,即在"系统-规则-状态"逻辑基础上通过对微观层面的有序构建来描述宏观上非常规突发事件演化的无序现象。在此基础上,认为非常规突发事件应急管理过程本质上是识别和调节风险社会系统的过程。通过风险预警、事件情景构建、应急决策、应急管理与评估、应急管理常态化五个管理阶段对非常规突发事件进行应急管理,为非常规突发事件的应急管理提供建议性框架。
This paper proposes the fuzzy scenario evolution analysis to resolve the evolution of unconventional emergencies in the guidance of complexity sciences. That is to describe the macro disorder phenomena of unconventional emergencies by building the ordering rules under the micro - level in the logic on the basis of relations among the system, rules and status. On this basis,it considers that the nature of the unconventional emergency management process is a process to identify and adjust the risk of social systems. The implement of emergency management by the five stages of risk warning, building the e-mergences scenarios, emergency decision-making, emergency management assessment and normal emergency management. That can provide the referenced framework to unconventional emergencies management.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期130-135,共6页
Soft Science
基金
重庆市社会科学规划基金项目(2011YBZZ012)
关键词
非常规突发事件
模糊情景演化分析
应急管理过程
unconventional emergencies
the fuzzy scenario evolution analysis
emergency management process
