摘要
根据1916—2010年淮河蚌埠水文站大洪水资料,运用信息预测理论,构建大洪水可公度有序网络结构,同时采用峰谷定位法、前兆法等方法对淮河大洪水进行综合分析和预测.结果表明:2013—2014年淮河(蚌埠站)将有可能发生大洪水.
According to the latest statistical data at Bengbu hydrologic station,a total of 21 floods occurred over Huaihe river basins from 1916 to 2012 and showed an obvious commensurable orderliness. In the guidance of the in- formation forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, with previous research results, combining order analysis with complex network technology, this paper makes a summary on the ordered network structure of the Huaihe floods and supple- ment of new information, further refinement construction, builds the ordered network structure of commensurability. At last, a new prediction opinion is presented that a big deluge will probably occur over Huaihe basins at Bengbu station around 2013--2014.
出处
《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2013年第2期178-183,共6页
Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）
关键词
淮河
可公度性有序网络结构
峰谷定位法
前兆法
大洪水预测
Huaihe
ordered commensurable network structure
position method of peak and valley
precursormethod
flood prediction
