摘要
当前,微博已经成为网民的主要交流方式之一,它已成为突发事件的舆论场,是社会舆情的主要发源地和传播推手。通过微博实验研究发现:在突发事件的微博集群行为舆情预警感知中,微博网民的影响力因素主要来自原创博文评论数和关注数,而与其粉丝数无关;微博网民的情绪在事件引爆点容易形成高强度能量场,是舆情危机的动力源,也是舆情预警的重要参考指标;网民情绪热度和情绪分布在事件引爆点周围形成小幅周期性波动。掌握它们的演变规律,可以帮助危机管理者根据突发事件传播的内在机理,有效消除或化解舆情危机,为后期网民集群行为引导策略的制定提供一定的理论和实践指引。
At present, micro-blog has become the main way of communication among interact users. It has become an opinion field for emergencies, as well as a main source of social public opinion and a push-hand of its spreading. In this study, through micro-blog experi- mental study, it was found that： 1 ） In the public opinion warning perception of the micro-blog collective behavior for emergencies, influ- ence factors of micro-blog users mainly come from number of the original comments and concerns, but not their number of fans ; 2 ） Emo- tional triggers of micro-blog users is apt to form the high intensity field in the event. It is the power source of public opinion crisis, and also an important reference index for early warning of public opinion; 3 ） Emotional heat and emotional distribution of internet users form small periodic fluctuations around the tipping point. Recognizing and mastering their evolvement rules can help the crisis management to a- void or defuse crisis according to the inherent mechanism of Emergency Public Perception. The results also serve as an important theoretical and practical guidance for crisis management in formulating solutions to guide cyber citizens＇ collective behaviors as well.
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期32-37,48,共7页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家973重大项目"混合网络下社会集群行为感知与规律研究"(编号:2010CB731406)
东北大学秦皇岛分校校内科研基金项目"混合网络下集群行为引导策略研究"(编号:XNB201313)
关键词
突发事件
集群行为
舆情预警
舆情危机
舆情传播
引导策略
unexpected events collective behavior early warning of public opinion public opinion crisis public opinion spread guide strategy
