摘要
为克服以往假设河川径流系列平稳所造成的"伪回归"问题,根据协整分析理论,对渭河上下游水文站1956～1989年的天然河川径流系列进行协整性检验,基于误差修正模型,建立了渭河上下游径流序列预测模型。检验结果表明,在5%显著性水平下,渭河林家村水文站与咸阳水文站天然径流系列存在协整关系,且协整向量为(1,-0.880 03);利用渭河上游林家村水文站的天然河川径流系列,对1990～2000年下游咸阳水文站的天然河川径流进行预测,除1995年径流预测模拟结果相对误差较大外,其余年份误差绝对值均在20%以内。可见将协整分析应用于河川径流预测,可真实反映河川径流时间系列演变趋势,揭示河川径流上下游关系变化规律,效果良好,有利于河川径流预报水平的提高。
In previous studies of the stream flow time series, the data sequence was often assumed stationary. Thus, it appears spurious regression phenomenon. In order to overcome this default, the cointegration relationship between streamflow from 1956 to 1989 of the upper and lower reaches of the Weihe River is presented. Based on the cointegration theory, the error correction model which can predict stream flow is set up. The results show that there is one cointegration relationship between two stream flow series of the Linjiaeun and Xianyang hydrology stations of Weihe River, and cointegration vector is （1, -0. 880 03） ; with the stream flow series of Linjiacun hydrology station on the upper reaches, the stream flow series of Xianyang hydrology station on the lower reaches are predicted from 1990 to 2000; with the pre- diction model, except the larger error of stream flow in 1995, the simulation error of the rest of the years are all less than 20% ; with the application of the cointegration theory, the stream flow of Weihe River can be reflected truly, which is be fit for the improvement of the stream flow prediction.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第5期18-20,99,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50939006
51079132
50679075)
河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划基金资助项目(2010A570006)
关键词
河川径流
协整理论
误差修正模型
渭河
stream flow cointegration theoryl error correction model~ Weihe River
