摘要
利用丹东1951~2010年逐日温度和降水资料,以多重分形去趋势波动分析法定义极端事件的阈值,分析了该地区极端最高温度、极端最低温度和极端降水的变化特征。结果表明：近60 a丹东极端最低温度事件比极端最高温度和极端降水事件发生次数多,极端最高温度强度比极端最低温度大,平均超出了1.5℃,而极端降水平均强度为30.3 mm,都在20世纪70年代最小,70年代是转折期;50年代的极端气候事件（温度和降水）最为严重,其次是90年代,70年代的严重度最轻;极端降水频次变化不明显,极端最高温度事件可以由夏季平均最高温度的变化预测,有不显著的增多趋势,而极端最低温度事件可以用冬季平均日较差温度的变化预测,在今后一段时间内有显著减少的趋势。
Based on the daily temperature and precipitation in Dandong during 1951-2010 and the definition of the threshold of extreme events using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, this study analyzes the characteristics of extreme maximum temperature, extreme minimum temperature and extreme precipitation. The results show that the frequency of extreme minimum temperature event is more than that of extreme maximum temperature and extreme precipitation events over Dandong in recent six decades. The intensity of extreme maximum temperature is larger than that of extreme minimum temperature, with the average value of 1.5 ℃. The average intensity of extreme precipitation is 30.3 ram. Both the frequency and intensity of these extreme events are the smallest in 1970s, which is also the turning point. The extreme climate events （temperature and precipitation） in 1950s are the severest, and these events in 1990s are the second severest, whereas the severity of these events in 1970s is the smallest. Meanwhile, the frequency of extreme precipitation varies unobviously. The frequency of extreme maximum temperature event could be predicted by the changes in the average summer maximum temperature, which shows that there is insignificant positive trend in extreme maximum temperature. The frequency of extreme minimum temperature can be forecasted using the average winter daily temperature range, which results in the significant negative trend in the frequency of extreme minimum temperature in future.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期473-480,共8页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41171038)
吉林省自然科学基金项目(20101561)资助
关键词
极端温度
极端降水
多重分形去趋势波动分析
extreme temperature
extreme precipitation
multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis
