摘要
金融发展相对于经济增长的适度性关系可以进一步划分为金融发展不足、金融发展适度和金融发展超前三种状态,通过选取新兴市场国家1989—2011年的数据对我国金融发展的适度性区间予以研究,结果表明:我国在目前和未来一段时间内,金融中介、股票市场、债券市场、保险市场以及金融综合发展水平都接近或达到相对超前区间,这样的金融发展水平可以给经济提供有效支持,但同时存在的诸多隐患也需要作进一步的调整。
In this paper, we defined and discussed the concept of moderation between financial and economic development. We claimed that by judging whether or not the actual scale of financial market lies in the moderate interval of financial development specific to its economic level, a country＇s financial development can have fallen behind, kept in pace with, or outpaced economic development. Then we proved it in theory by establishing a production model which incorporated financial factors. Furthermore, we estimated the moderate interval of China＇s financial development using relevant data from emerging markets and analyzed the suitability of China＇s actual financial development relative to its economic status. Conclusions are that development of China＇s financial intermediaries, stock market, bond market, insurance market, respectively, and the financial market as a whole have been approaching or exceeding the upper bound of the moderate interval. Thus, we showed that given China＇s rapid economic growth, this level of financial development can provide effective support to the economy, while at the same time bring about a series of risks to it. Accordingly, we put forward some suggestions regarding China＇s financial and economic development.
出处
《社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期39-49,共11页
Journal of Social Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"我国区域金融中心建设的可行性评估及对策研究"(项目批准号:71073025)
上海市哲学社会科学规划项目"中国银行业对外开放过程中的安全问题研究"
复旦大学金融研究中心高端学术课题"开放条件下我国银行业安全水平的评估
预测及对策研究"(项目批准号:2012FDFRCGD17)的阶段性成果
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
适度性
Financial Development
Economic Growth
Moderation
