摘要
本文从碳排放系数的角度推导了总量变化的SDA分解模型,从社会经济发展视角构建了LMDI分解公式,讨论不同时期碳排放量变化的影响因素。文章以云南省为例,运用云南省分行业能源消费数据以及4个年份的投入产出表进行实证分析。SDA计算结果表明:消费与投资扩张效应是碳排放增长的主要影响因素,碳排放强度变动效应是节能减排的源动力;LMDI分解结果表明:人均GDP增长是拉动云南省CO2排放增长的决定性因素,而能耗强度下降是抑制碳排放增长的主要原因。文章最后提出了低碳经济条件下云南省产业结构调整的方向。
This paper derived the SDA model in terms of coefficient of carbon emissions, and established the LMD1 equations to analyze the impact factors for carbon changes in total. As an example, Yunnan Province is analyzed based on energy consumption data and four years input-output table. The results of SDA model shows that expansion effect of consumption and investment is a source of carbon emissions, and the changing effect of carbon intensity is the main measure to save energy and reduce emission. The results of LMDI show that the PGDP growth is the decisive factor in stimulating growth of CO2 emissions, and the decline of energy intensity is the most important factor to inhibit carbon emissions growth in Yunnan Province. In the last part, this paper provides the suggestions for the structure adjustment with low carbon economy system in Yunnan Province.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第4期76-83,共8页
Statistical Research
基金
第四届统计学年会推荐论文。获云南省哲学社会科学学科建设项目"EC+IO联合模型构建及其在云南省主导产业中的应用研究"(2012年)资助
云南省教育厅科学研究项目"低碳经济与云南省产业结构调整研究"(2010C045)阶段性成果
云南财经大学引进人才科研启动费资助项目"云南省优势产业发展研究"(YC10D018)资助
