摘要
本文基于贸易引力模型分析框架和2003～2010年期间中国与62个样本国家或地区的双边数据，实证检验近年增长迅速的中国对外直接投资的贸易效应，并采用适合样本和数据特征的动态面板模型系统GMM估计，以获得较为稳健的估计结果。实证检验发现，中国对发展中国家的对外直接投资显著促进出口贸易，对发达国家的对外直接投资则负向影响出口贸易，总体效应为负，中国对外直接投资整体上呈现出微弱的贸易替代效应。本文结论对于中国如何协调贸易投资政策以实现由贸易大国向贸易投资大国的平稳过渡和顺利转变，具有重要启示意义和现实价值。
China has achieved remarkable success in attracting foreign direct investment （FDI） since the 1980s,and has been a giant of FDI recipient. But in the last few years a more attractive trend has caught the attention of academics as well as policymakers. As China is rapidly integrating with the global economy,its overseas enterprises have been gaining importance as a new source of international capital. According to the Chinese government official statistics, although its outward investment is still small in terms of stock, especially compared to the huge inward FDI,China＇ s outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） flows reached US $ 68.81 billion and ranked 5th among all economies in terms of OFDI flows in 2010. Instead of analyzing FDI inflows,researchers are more and more interested in examining the surge of outflows from China. The complementary or substitution relationship between OFDI and trade, in particular exports, has been a subject of debate in both theoretical and empirical literature in recent decades. As a new source of international capital and a big trade economist, how does China＇ s OFDI affect its exports？
This study examines the trade effect of OFDI stocks on exports in China by disentangling sample countries into developing and developed economies for the 62 selected countries over the period from 2003 to 2010, using dynamic panel data models and system GMM estimators. The structure of the study is as follows. Section 1 provides the background information about the study. The next section presents a theoretical and empirical literature review about the effect of OFDI on trade, in particular exports. Section 3 outlines the empirical models and estimation methods. Section 4 describes the sample and data used in the analysis. Section 5 describes the econometric procedure and discusses the empirical results, while section 6 concludes.
The empirical results for the estimations of the gravity equation demonstrate that China＇ s OFDI flows into developing countries significantly increases the export from China. In contrast, the results find a weak evidence of substitution effects between the China＇ s exports and its OFDI flows into developed countries. We also witness statisti- cally insignificant evidence that the trade effect of China＇ s OFDI is negative using data for all sample countries. The results of system GMM regressions imply that the identification of complementary or substitution effects of China＇ s OFDI on its export requires finer disaggregated data, and we need further research to understand better the relationship between the OFDI and trade. Concerning the other explanatory variables in regressions, the results show that overall bilateral country size （ the sum of bilateral real GDP） between China and its trading partner has a positive association with the exports, while distance variable has negative influence on the exports. In addition, the real exchange rate between China and its trading partner is not statistically significant in all system GMM regressions.
Taking into account the fact that Chinese outward FDI is expected to accelerate in the coming years, this study has important implications. China has been implementing the strategy of ＂going out＂, which encourages domestic enterprises to improve the foreign trade and invest actively overseas, and to participate enthusiastically in interna- tional competition and cooperation in a broader world, so as to utilize domestic and overseas materials and markets more effectively. During China＇s transformation from a big nation in foreign trade to a great power in foreign trade and outward direct investment, it is important that the relationship between OFDI and trade be profoundly under- stand, and base on the understanding, particular arrangements and countermeasures can be fully discussed.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第4期11-19,共9页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国对外直接投资的贸易效应及政策研究"(12CJY084)
教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目"中国对外直接投资影响因素的实证研究"(11XJC790003)
重庆市社会科学规划项目"贸易开放对我国政府规模影响的理论分析与实证研究"(2011YBJJ034)
关键词
对外直接投资
贸易效应
动态面板模型
outward foreign direct invest
trade effect
dynamic panel data model
