摘要
鉴于当前短期气候预测中,纯粹使用动力学方法尚不能完全满足气候预测业务的需要,因此有必要在策略上采取动力和统计相结合的办法。在具体实现手段上,简要介绍了从历史资料中提炼预测信息,发展了一种基于历史相似误差订正的相似—动力短期气候预测新方法。分别在月、季节以及ENSO等短期气候预测领域相继开展了试验和应用,取得了一些令人鼓舞的初步结果,为下一步深入开展有关短期气候预测科学的研究提供了些许借鉴。
Because the dynamical climate prediction model is ineffective for skillful forecasting on a weekly to intra-armual scale in the East Asia region, the combination of a dynamical and statistical prediction method has been suggested as an optimal strategy. To realize the technique, a forecasting error correction method by utilizing historical analogue information was developed in China. The current applications show that this new method can significantly improve prediction skill in extended range, monthly, seasonal, and El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） prediction and hence have encouraged us to further explore operational applications for this method in the future.
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期341-350,共10页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划2013CB430200
2010CB950501
国家自然科学基金资助项目41105070
关键词
短期气候预测
动力相似
预报误差
Short-range climate prediction
Dynamical analogue
Forecasting error
