摘要
利用时间序列方法对阿克苏市1954～1997年月、季、年平均气温序列进行分析 ,建立各气温序列的时间序列预报方程 ,并对阿克苏市平均气温的年际变化进行预测 ,预测值与实况值相关较好 ,其中1月、9月、冬季与年4个气温预报方程的效果最为显著 ,信度可达99.9 %。
The average temperature series of month,season and year in Akesu from 1954 to 1997 are analysed with the time series method.Predicting equations of each temperature series are given,and interannual changes of average temperatures were predicted.The relationship between forecasting values and real data are better,especially in January,Setemper,winter and a year with confidence of 99.9%.
出处
《新疆气象》
2000年第4期8-10,共3页
Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology
