摘要
目的探讨我国主要法定报告传染病疫情是否存在"春节效应"。方法首先根据每月天数和人口自然增长率,对卫生部全国传染病网络直报系统提供的2005年至2011年月报告病例数进行调整,然后利用时间序列分解法分解出传染病的季节性因素S和SRi(季节性因素和随机性因素),最后结合传染病的该两项指标的变化情况及对应的潜伏期、春节时间,推测其是否具有"春节效应"。结果发现甲肝、乙肝、丙肝、戊肝、百日咳、淋病和梅毒可能具有"春节效应"。结论该7种传染病之所以表现出"春节效应",可能原因是春节期间大规模人群流动等社会因素影响其传染源、传播途径和易感人群等方式而呈现出的结果。研究结果提示在春节期间应加强相关传染病的防治工作。
Objective To explore the ＂Spring Festival effects＂ of the notifiable communicable diseases in China.Methods Based on the monthly cases of each notifiable communicable disease provided by Web-based National Reporting System on Notifiable Communicable Diseases from the year of 2005 to 2011,seasonality S and SRi（including seasonality and randomness） of each disease were split out by using decomposition methods after adjustment of the days in each month and population growth rate.Then the ＂Spring Festival effects＂ were inferred via comprehensive analysis of the variations of S and SRi as well as the incubation period and the date of Spring Festival.Results Hepatitis A,B,C,E,whooping cough,gonorrhea and syphilis were found to exhibit ＂Spring Festival effects＂.Conclusions Possible reasons of ＂Spring Festival effects＂ are social factors,such as massive population migration during this period,which would affect infectious pathogen,transmission and susceptible populations of the studied diseases.In addition,it suggests that prevention and control of these diseases should be done during Spring Festival.
出处
《复旦学报（医学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期153-158,共6页
Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences
关键词
传染病
发病
感染
节日
季节
communicable diseases
incidence
infection
holiday
seasons
