摘要
给出了一种地震前兆预报效能的检验方法 ,以北京板桥水位观测资料为例 ,通过与随机异常和以一定时间间隔周期出现的均匀异常的预报效能进行对比 ,对其异常的预报效能进行了系统检验。结果表明 ,北京板桥水位观测 5日均值 ,通过维纳滤波后的残差值高于 1倍均方差异常 ,对张北—唐山一带中等以上地震具有一定预报效能。以异常出现后 80天的时宽做预报 ,此时 R值可达 0 .43,可信度为 70 %以上。这一方法可用于对其他前兆观测台站或单测项预报效能的检验。
An evaluation method of prediction effectiveness of precursory anomalies is proposed, and the prediction effectiveness of water level anomaly at Banqiao station, Beijing, is evaluated by comparing with that of the random and regular anomalies. The results show that the five day mean of the water level, taking the residual of Weinna filtering over the standard deviation as anomaly, can predict earthquakes with moderate magnitude along Zhangbei Tangshan seismic belt. When the anomaly occurs, prediction with 80 days time window can be made. In this case, R value could reach 0.43 and the confidence can be over 70%. This method can be applied to evaluate the prediction effectiveness of the precursory anomalies.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第3期25-28,共4页
Earthquake
关键词
地震前兆
预报效能
检验方法
地下水动态
Earthquake precursor
Prediction effectiveness
Evaluation method
