摘要
孟连 7.3级大震前有中强地震发生 ,这对大震的地点预报十分有利 ,但中、强震发生后是否一定有大震发生 ,这仍然是预报难题。其次 ,中、强震发生后 ,究竟相隔多长时间后发生大震 ,这是另一个预报难题。以孟连地震作为震例 ,用“层次法”对上述二个问题作出回答。最后由“层次法”得到孟连地震的预报参数为 :震中 2 2°N,99°E;MX7.3;时间 1 995年 7月 1 2日。预测参数与实际地震参数一致。
There are several moderately strong earthquakes occurred before Menglian earthquake, which is useful to the location prediction of the strong earthquake followed. But it is still a difficult problem whether a strong earthquake will occur or not after moderately strong earthquakes have occurred in an area. On the other hand, it is another problem that how long an expected strong earthquake will occur after the occurrence of a moderate earthquake. This paper has provided answers to the problems mentioned above using “Hierarchy Method” to Menglian earthquake. According to the “Hierarchy Method”, the parameters of Menglian earthquake are predicted as location: 22°N, 99°E; magnitude: 7.3; date: July 12, 1995, indicating that there is no difference with the realistic parameters of Menglian earthquake.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第3期9-14,共6页
Earthquake
基金
国家自然科学基金项目!(49674 2 1 0 )
关键词
层次法
中强前震
强震
短临预报
Hierarchy Method
Moderately strong earthquake
Strong earthquake
Short term and imminent prediction
