摘要
上海在城市化进程和服务业发展上都具有典型意义。本文利用上海1949-2010年长时期城市化率与服务业占比数据,基于误差修正模型和向量自回归模型对城市化与服务业之间的动态互动关系进行了分析。分析得出,城市化进程在长期和短期两个方面对服务业比重产生影响,短期影响更为显著,从长期看,城市化进程对服务业作用可能存在先升后降中的拐点;在动态互动方面,城市化进程对服务业发展的影响要强于服务业发展对城市化进程的影响,但是它们彼此的影响都具有持久性。最后,文章根据分析结论给出了相应的政策建议。
The urbanization and the growth of service sector in Shanghai is very important forChina. This paper analyzed the dynamic Interaction between urbanization and growth of servicesector in Shanghai with ECM model and VAR model. The paper pointed that the urbanizationplays an significant role on the growth of service sector in both short run and long run, and theimpact of short run is more significant. In long run, there is perhaps a turning point about theimpact of the urbanization on the growth of service sector in Shanghai. On the the dynamiclnteraction between the urbanization and the growth of service sector, the effect of urbanization onthe growth of service sector in Shanghai is stronger than the effect of the growth of service sectoron the urbanization. However, Both effects are persistent. At last, the paper obtained theappropriate policy recommendations.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期125-134,共10页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目'三次产业动态协同发展机制研究'(10ZD&027)
关键词
城市化
服务业
动态互动
上海
Urbanization
Service Sector
Dynamic Interaction
Shanghai
