摘要
采用安徽省1978～2010年的相关社会经济统计资料为基础数据,在对33a来粮食动态变化的定量定性分析基础上,利用主成分分析方法探讨了区域粮食生产的影响因子。然后根据安徽33a粮食总产量的历史数据,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对安徽省未来20a(2011～2030年)的粮食产量进行中长期的模拟预测,以期为相关部门粮食生产决策提供科学依据。研究表明:(1)1978～2010年,安徽省粮食生产在波动中增长,粮食总产量和人均粮食产量曲线的动态变化基本吻合。(2)影响粮食生产的3个主要成分分别是社会经济发展水平、农业生产成本和粮食作物播种面积。(3)粮食生产在2011～2030年将保持平稳增长的良性发展态势,2030年粮食预测产量达到4 119万t,比2010年增长了1 039万t,年均增长1.5%。
Anhui province（114°54′E^119°37′E,29°41′N^34°38′N） which located in the eastern of China is one of the great bases of commercial foodstuff.With the development of urbanization,industrialization and so on,many problems such as the loss of farmland,agricultural production fluctuation have become increasingly fierce since Reform and Opening Up.Thus,carrying out the research on agricultural production fluctuation,investigating the factors which result in the change of agricultural production and forecasting the agricultural production are urgently required.In this paper,the impacts that affect the regional grain production were studied by choosing socio-economic statistics from 1978 to 2010,based on quantitative and qualitative analysis to the grain dynamic changes in 33 years.After that,GM（1,1） prediction model was established according to the data about grain production of Anhui province in the past 33 years.Then the simulation and prediction in medium and long-term on food production of Anhui province were carried out in the next 20 years（2011-2030）.The results provided a scientific basis for relevant grain production departments of Anhui province.The reasearch showed that from 1978 to 2010,the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grain production in Anhui province mainly performanced in two aspects.On one hand,it displayed a significantly fluctuated growth in grain production but the fluctuations of grain production in recent years slowed down.On the other hand,the curve line of total grain production and the changing trends of per capita food production were basically alike.The total grain output of Anhui province increased from 14.826 million tons in 1978 to 30.805 million tons in 2010 with the average annual growth rate of 25.67%.Per capita food increased from 3 145.77 kg in 1978 to 4 512.47 kg 2010 with the average annual growth rate of 11.93%.Three major components of the impacts on food production were socio-economic development levels,the cost of agricultural production and sown area of food crops.Socio-economic factors played as the main driving factor which affected Anhui food production change greatly.However,the effects of natural conditions on food production could not be underestimated.The contribution rate of the three main components of food production in Anhui province were 58.394,21.542 and 9.032.The stable yields area,effective irrigated area,actual machine arable land,the total power of agricultural machinery,fertilizer application rate,the single factor of the drainage and irrigation machinery were the main factors in the first principal components.The correlation coefficients were as high as 0.992,0.976,0.974,0.970,0.969 and 0.969.Food production would keep the sound development momentum from 2011 to 2030 through the forecasting results.Concretely speaking,the food production of Anhui province would reach 41.19 million tons in 2030.There would be an increasing of 10.39 million tons compared with 2010.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期314-321,共8页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41061017)
关键词
主成分分析
GM(1
1)模型
粮食
安徽省
principal component analysis
GM（1
1） model
grain
Anhui province
