摘要
光伏发电受天文、气象、环境及自身组件特性的影响,发电功率的变化具有周期性和不确定性.并网光伏发电系统发电量的准确预测,可减小光电功率对电力系统安全、可靠运行的不良影响.国内外现有光伏发电量预测模型包括原理预测模型、统计预测模型、智能预测模型和基于不确定理论的预测模型等.通过分析太阳能光伏发电量预测研究状况和太阳能总辐射量预测的一般方法,总结了光伏发电量预测的现有预测模型的优缺点和适用范围,并对不同方法相互结合的组合预测法进行了展望.
Influenced by astronomy, meteorology, environment and package characteristic, the photovohaic （PV） power generation is of periodicity and uncertainty. In grid-connected PV power system, the accurate generation forecast can reduce the harmful effects of system security and reliability. The published methods at home and abroad include the principle model, statistical model, intelligent model and uncertainty theory model. In this paper, a review on forecast methods of grid-connected PV power system is presented. It summarizes several methods of solar radiation forecast and analyzes their superiorities and limitations. The combination forecast method is prospected.
出处
《北京建筑工程学院学报》
2013年第1期64-69,共6页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Civil Engineering and Architecture
关键词
光伏发电预测
统计预测
智能预测
不确定预测
PV power forecast
statistical forecast
intelligent forecast
uncertainty theory forecast
