摘要
改革开放30年,人口结构的转变为中国经济增长做出了重要贡献。而随着人口结构的深刻变化,人口红利是否正在消失和刘易斯转折点是否已经到来,近来备受瞩目。"未富先老"是人口结构快速转变与经济增长之间的突出矛盾。通过最新文献回顾发现,深入研究限制人口红利的制度和结构性因素显得更为重要,而刘易斯模型的适用性、中国经济社会现实的复杂性以及数据缺乏,是造成刘易斯转折点判断分歧的主要原因。因此,未来研究综合考虑这些因素,才能有助于作出科学判断。
During 30 years of reform and opening up in China,demographic transition has made a great contribution to economic growth.With rapid demographic transition,whether demographic dividend is disappearing,and whether Lewis turning point in China has come are of the high-profile research focuses.＂Ageing before Affluence＂ is the prominent contradiction between the rapid demographic transition and economic growth.The latest research progress in the field of demographic dividend shows that,it＇s more important to study the institutional and structural factors constraining demographic dividend.The differences of judgment on Lewis turning point are caused by the applicability of the Lewis Model,the complexity of economy and society in China and lack of data.Therefore,only the researchers in future consider these factors comprehensively,can they make a scientific judgment.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期138-144,共7页
Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"三次产业动态协同发展机制研究"(项目号:10ZD&027)的资助
关键词
人口红利
刘易斯转折点
人口结构
未富先老
Demographic Dividend
Lewis Turning Point
Demographic Transition
Ageing before Affluence
