摘要
中美两国在东亚海域的力量对比差距正逐渐缩小,权力竞争也愈发激烈而危险。这种权力竞争具有特殊性和有限性的特点,它的发展走向对于中美两国乃至整个世界都具有重大意义。现有的研究大多强调大理论的建构、历史经验的总结和数据的演绎分析,忽视对中美间互动进程的考察,往往陷入"宿命论"的怪圈,缺失应有的解释力及政策价值。作者试图通过分析中美在东亚海域权力转移过程中的挑战与机遇以及双方在该区域重大利益的结构及博弈情况,寻求改善战略及政策互动的方法与途径。作者认为,中美间的互动正呈现出互相矛盾的两面,政策与意图正日益脱节,冲突与合作的因素并存:一方面,中美各自的战略和政策正在激化矛盾、引发对抗,日本、菲律宾等第三方的纠葛也使得中美两国龃龉不断;另一方面,利益博弈结构、相互依存状态以及国际公共物品的供给压力又使得中美不得不极力避免彼此间的直接军事冲突或战争。为改善这类自相矛盾的互动以防止悲剧发生,中美两国应在战略目标、政策设计及价值观念等方面做出相互适应的调整与妥协,同时建立有效的危机管控机制,并推动双方在维护海上安全等领域的合作。
The strength disparity between China and the United States on the seas of East Asia is narrowing and their competition for power has also become more intense and dangerous.The trend of this special and limited competition has great significance for China,the United States and even the whole world.Most current research has emphasized too much on constructing theories,summarizing historical experience and interpreting data while ignoring the process of Sino-U.S.interactions and often being trapped in fatalism,and thus lacking explanatory power and policy value.This essay attempts to seek the ways and methods to improve the interaction between strategy and policy through analyzing the major maritime interests of China and the United States on the seas of East Asia,and war risks and peace opportunities as well.On these bases,it also intends to make some suggestions for the decision makers from both countries on avoiding risks and grasping opportunities.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期27-44,155,共18页
World Economics and Politics
关键词
中美关系
危机管理
东亚
近海
权力转移
Sino-U.S.relations
East Asia
coastal waters
power shift
crisis management
