摘要
利用混沌理论对电力系统负荷数据进行了相空间重构 ,绘出了其二维相空间相图 ,同时对负荷的相关维数D2 及负荷时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数 (λ1 )进行了计算。由计算结果发现电力系统负荷具有混沌特性 ,其外在表现为貌似随机的无规则特性 ,且内部系统的时间序列具有分数维D2及最大 (λ1 )大于零。最后运用嵌入相空间的局域线性法对某地区电网的有功负荷作了预测。此方法是一种新的电力系统负荷预测方法 。
Power system load data has been reconstructed in phase spase on the base of chaos theory. We have showed two dimesional picture of the data, and calculated its correlation dimesion D 2 and maximum lyapunov exponent ( λ 1) at the same time. From the result that we have worked out, we find that power system load has chaotic property. It appears the seeming irregular movement because of its fractional D 2 and positive( λ 1). Power load has been forecasted in 24 hours on the base of local linear prediction in the end and this method is a new way to power load forecast.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第11期36-40,共5页
Proceedings of the CSEE
