摘要
财务困境预警研究,应跳出"唯财务观"的怪圈,将宏观经济因素、行业环境因素等同时纳入财务困境研究可行且必要。文章从事物发展内外因辩证关系的角度重新构建了企业财务困境的发生机理;并从宏观经济因素、行业环境因素、治理与财务结构因素、审计意见类型、财务指标等5个维度建立预警指标。采用Probit模型对2003—2011年度部分上市公司数据进行了实证分析,我们发现:高资产负债率、经济不景气、非清洁审计意见、商品零售价格指数等对财务困境发生具有正向"诊断"作用;而总资产净利率、每股经营活动现金流量、GDP增长变动率、股权结构集中等对企业财务困境的发生具有负向"诊断"作用。
Financial ratios should not be the only focus of the research on financial distress early-warning.h was possible and necessary to take the facturs into eunsideration such as macrneeonomics, industrial environment, etc.In the paper, the mechanism of financial distress was recunstrueted in terms of dialectic relationship of internal and external, and then the early-warn- ing indicators frum 5 dimensions such as macrueconomics, industry environments, governance and financial structure, the type of audit opinion, and financial ratios were established. Finally, the empirical test was done by using the data of some listed companies from 2003 to 2011 with Probit model, the conclusions were the following： high debt ratio, downturn economy, non-clean auditing opiniun and RPI had a positive ＂diagnosis＂ effect on financial distress, whereas ROA, operating cash flow per share, ROC of GDP growth, and concentration of equity structure had a negative ＂diagnosis＂ effect on financial distress.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2013年第3期135-139,共5页
East China Economic Management
基金
安徽高等学校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2008A116)
宿州学院质量工程项目(szxyzdxk200902)
关键词
财务困境机理
宏观经济因素
行业环境
PROBIT
mechanism of financial distress
macroeconomic factors
industrial environment
Probit
