摘要
运用改进的生态能值足迹模型(EEF),对云南省2001—2010年能值足迹的动态变化与生态系统可持续发展进行分析,结果发现:10年来人均能值盈余呈持续下降趋势,2009年低至1.7076 hm2,但生态系统处于可持续发展状态。在此基础上,通过GM(1,1)模型,对未来五年人均能值盈余进行情景预测,结果表明:在自然环境、经济发展不发生"突变"的前提下,2011—2015年人均能值从1.5098 hm2下降至0.1767 hm2,说明了生态能值系统处于协调发展。此研究对实施"桥头堡"战略之资源开发与生态安全屏障构建有着重要意义。
This article analyzed dynamic changes of energy footprint and ecosystem sustainable development in Yun- nan Province during the period of 2001 -2010 by improved ecological footprint model with energy analysis. The re- suits showed that： the ecological system was still in the sustainable development status even though the per capita en- ergy value reduced to 1. 7076 hm2 in 2009. On this basis, the trend of per capita energy surplus of the next five years was scenarioscan predicted by GM（ 1,1 ） model. The results displayed that the per capita energy surplus kept down- ward trend with the value 1. 5098 hm2 to 0. 1767 hm2 from 2011 to 2015 in the condition that no sudden change oc- curred in natural environment and economic development; That is to say, the ecological value system did not appear deficit, so it was in coordination state. The conclusion above were important for the implementation of ＂Bridge head＂ strategy o f resource development and ecological security barrier construction.
出处
《浙江农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期171-175,共5页
Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis
基金
水利部公益性项目:高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性诊断研究(20100158)
关键词
能值足迹
情景预测
“桥头堡”建设
云南省
energy footprint
scenario forecast
＂Bridge head＂ building
Yunnan Province
