摘要
针对我国人均耕地持续降低及耕地质量普遍较低的严峻现状,利用一元线性回归法对我国未来粮食产量做出预测,运用中国人口预测软件CPPS对我国人口的变化趋势进行预测,通过耕地人口承载力指数测度人地关系状况。研究表明:未来耕地生产产能增长潜力较小,人口持续增长,并在2028年达到峰值14.37亿人,2011年以后人口承载力指数大于1,人口超载。未来耕地将面临更严峻的现实,必须采取切实有效的措施严格保护耕地。
Based on the severe situation in which per capita cultivated land continues to drop while the quality of cultivated land is generally low in China, this paper makes a forecast of grain production in the future with ULR（a linear regression method ）, then predicts the population trends with the use of cPPS（China＇s population prediction software ） developed by the national population and family planning commission ,so as to measure the relation between human and land condition by the index of cultivated land population bearing capacity. The research reveals that the potential about production of cultivated land productivity growth in the future is small while population grows persistently, which will reach to the peak of 1.437 billion in 2028. After 2011, the index is greater than 1 and population overload, as a result that the cultivated land will fnce a more severe reality. Hence, we must take effective measures to strictly protect cultivated land.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期168-171,共4页
Economic Geography
基金
湖南省国土资源厅2012年科技计划项目(湖南省农村集体土地产权制度改革研究)
湖南省科技计划项目(2010JT4023
2012FJ6069)
关键词
耕地生产产能
人口增长
人口承载力
cultivated land production potentiality
population growth
population carrying capacity
