摘要
隧道工程施工中,围岩变形是一种常见的工程问题,当变形量达到一定数值时,会影响工程质量,给施工人员带来安全隐患,延误工期。因此,隧道围岩变形预测是保证施工安全,以及工程质量的重要措施。隧道围岩的变形在受到地质构造、地层岩性、应力场、地下水、开挖方式等多种因素的综合影响下,具有时间序列的单调增长性和随机性的特点,针对该特征,将灰色模型预测方法和马尔可夫链概率转移方法结合起来,建立灰色-马尔可夫链模型对围岩的变形进行预测。该预测方法是利用GM(1,1)模型的预测数列增长的特点,来预测围岩变形的宏观发展趋势,在此基础上应用马尔可夫链确定位移时序的状态转移概率矩阵,通过对状态的划分、实测值与灰色拟合值的绝对误差及相对误差等指标的分析,对围岩变形的发展趋势进行更为精确的预测。通过两水隧道算例,隧道围岩变形的计算结果与实测值吻合较好,表明所建立的灰色-马尔可夫链模型是正确的,在隧道围岩变形预测中具有广泛推广应用价值。
During tunnel construction, the problem of deformation of surrounding rock is frequently encountered This affects project quality and endangers those building the tunnel. Therefore, predicting the deformation of tunnel surrounding rock is very important. Considering the comprehensive effects of the geological structure, stratigraphic li- thology, stress field, groundwater, and excavation method, the deformation of the tunnel surrounding rock was charac- terized. A model of the Grey-Markov chain （MC） was established by combining the Gray Model with the probability transition method of the Markov chain to forecast the deformation of the tunnel surrounding rock. This method makes use of the time series increase of the GM（1,1） model to predict the macroscopic trend of tunnel surrounding rock de- formation and uses the Markov chain to ascertain the state transition probability matrix of the time series. Accurate prediction of the tunnel surrounding rock deformation is realized by state dividing and analyzing the absolute error and relative error between measured values and the MC values. Practical application verified that the calculated de- formation agreed very well with the measured deformation
出处
《现代隧道技术》
EI
北大核心
2013年第1期80-86,共7页
Modern Tunnelling Technology
关键词
隧道围岩
变形预测
灰色模型
马尔可夫链
Tunnel
Surrounding rock
Deformation prediction
Grey model
Markov chain
