摘要
利用内蒙古和林格尔县气象站1959年-2010年的气温和降水量数据,对和林格尔地区气温和降水的时间变化进行了分析。气温和降水量的距平分析、趋势分析、相关性分析、突变性分析和Hurst指数分析的结果显示,随着时间的推移,该地区气温在未来将保持持续上升的趋势(0.36℃/(10a))而且或将更明显,微弱的年降水量下降趋势(-8.4mm/(10a))极有可能改变;气温和降水量之间不具有明显的相关性;冬季气温和夏季降水分别是影响年平均气温和年降水量的最重要因素;年平均气温在1986年-1988年间发生了突变,年降水量则未发生。分析该地区气温和降水量等气候因素演变特征,对全面了解并合理利用当地气候资源,以及对水资源的可持续利用和加强生态环境保护等方面具有重要意义。
The temporal variations of air temperature and precipitation in Helingeer,Inner Mongolia were analyzed based on the monitoring data of air temperature and precipitation in the Helingeer meteorological station from 1959 to 2010. The anomaly, trend, correlation,mutation, and Hurst index analyses were conducted in the paper. Results showed that there is an increasing trend of temperature （0. 36 ℃/（10 a）） in the area, while the weak decreasing trend of precipitation （- 8. 4 mm/（10 a）） is likely to change; the air temperature does not have an apparent relationship with the precipitatiom the winter temperature and summer precipitation are the most important influencing factors of the annual average atmospheric temperature and annual precipitation,respectively;the air temperature had mutations between 1986 and 1988, while precipitation didn＇t. Analysis of variation characteristics of climate factors has great significance on the knowledge and reasonable utilization of the climate resources, sustainable utilization of water resources, and reinforcement of ecological environment protection.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期55-59,70,共6页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家环保公益性行业科研专项(201009009)
