摘要
从经济发展规律来看,随着科技创新的不断深入,农业产业结构在不断调整与优化,遵循农业产业结构优化与科技创新耦合的规律。但这一规律却在中国发生偏离,即随着科技创新水平的不断提高,农业产业结构优化与科技创新出现偏离趋势程度加大。本研究构建农业产业结构优化①与科技创新耦合性评价模型,应用因子分析法分别将衡量科技创新与农业产业结构优化水平的多个变量进行数据浓缩,并通过协整回归分析、VAR模型的预测方差分解等方法评价农业产业结构优化方向、演变趋势与科技创新的耦合与偏离,在此基础上提出进一步发挥科技创新对农业产业结构优化的作用、实现二者互动协调发展的对策,为制定相应政策提供一定的借鉴和参考。
From economy development rule, along with the technology innovation continuously, agricultural industry structure in contin uous adjustment and optimization, follow the coupling law of agriculture industrial structure optimization and technology innovation. But this rule in China varies, as the level of technology innovation rise ceaselessly, agricultural industry structure optimization and technolo gy innovation increasing trend of deviation. This paper constructs the coupled evaluation model of agricultural industry structure optimi zation and technology innovation, using the factor analysis method respectively, will measure the technology innovation and agricultural industry structural optimization level of multiple variable data concentrated, and through the co integration regression analysis, VAR model forecast variance decomposition method to evaluate agricultural industry structure optimization, evolution trend and direction, which coupling and deviation with technology innovation. On this foundation, this paper puts forward countermeasures to play further function about technological innovation on agricultural industry structure optimization, realization two coordinated development, this study will provide a reference to make corresponding policy.
出处
《科学学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期191-200,共10页
Studies in Science of Science
关键词
科技创新
农业产业结构优化
ADL模型
误差修正模型
预测方差分解
耦合规律
technology innovation
optimization of agricultural structure
ADL model
ECM
VAR model forecast variance analysis
coupling rule
