摘要
利用延安市1990～2010年的需水量数据,采用主成分分析法对影响水资源需求量的10个因子进行了分析。结果表明:GDP、降雨量、居民生活用水量及生态环境用水量4个因子为影响需水量的主要因子,将此作为主要因子构造BP神经网络的输入样本,建立延安市需水量预测模型。模拟结果与实际值相吻合,并利用模型对2015年需水量进行了预测。
Taking the water demand data from 1990 to 2010 of Yan＇an City of Shaanxi Province,this paper analyzes the main factors that influences the water resource quantity based on the principle component analysis method.The results show that GDP,rainfall,residents living water consumption and ecological environment water consumption are the primary indexes that affact the water demand.Taking the main indexes as input samples,the paper set up forcast model of water demand.The simulation results are consistent with the actual value,and use the model to predict water demand in 2015.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2012年第6期172-175,共4页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
关键词
需水预测
主成分分析法
BP神经网络
延安市
water demand prediction
method of principle component analysis
BP neutral networks
Yan＇an City
