摘要
贸易引力模型源于牛顿的万有引力定律,国内一些学者运用引力模型对中国与东盟之间的贸易进行了实证分析,研究了国际直接投资与两国距离、两国经济规模之间的关系,构建了中国与越南入境旅游的理论模型。然而尚未见到将外汇储备与关税引入对CAFTA的引力模型研究的文章,亦无运用引力模型研究中国对东盟的直接投资以及到访东盟各国的中国游客规模的文章。基于2000年至2009年的面板数据,建立起以东盟各国人均GDP、东盟各国领土面积、东盟各国外汇储备、中国人均GDP、中国外汇储备以及中国至东盟各国距离为自变量的引力模型,并运用Eviews5.0软件对中国对东盟直接投资、中国自东盟进口规模以及到访东盟各国的中国游客数量与各国人均GDP、各国外汇储备、距离以及面积之间的定量关系进行了回归分析。
Trade gravity model originates from the law of universal gravitation. Trade gravity model has been used by domestic researchers in empirical studies of trade within CAFTA, international trade, and Chinese tourist arrivals in Vietnam. However, neither tariff and foreign exchange reserves are taken into consideration in these papers, nor gravity model is used in analyzing China＇ s direct investment and Chinese tourist arrivals in ASEAN countries. Using econometrics software and based on a panel data from year 2000 to 2008, this paper constructs a gravity model, the independent variables of which are GDP per capita of CASEAN countries, foreign exchange reserves of CASEAN countries, squares of southeast Asian nations, and distance between China and southeast Asian nations. And quantitative relationship is made between independent variables and China＇ s direct investment in ASEAN, import from Southeast Asian nations, as well as arrivals of Chinese visitors.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期114-118,共5页
On Economic Problems
基金
江苏大学人文社科基金资助项目"基于波动非对称性的中国股市监管研究"(JDR2010007)
关键词
引力模型
东盟国家
中国-东盟自由贸易区
对外直接投资
外汇储备
人均GDP
gravity model
ASEAN （ Association of Southeast Asian Nations）
CAb-TA （ China - ASEAN FreeTrade Area）
ODI （outward direct investment）
FER（foreign exchange reserves）
GDP per capita
