摘要
在分析货物运输能源消耗与能耗强度、运输结构和货物周转量3因素关系的基础上,运用完全分解模型进行量化分析,测算了1990—2007年3个因素对货物运输能源消耗变动的影响效果。结果表明,货物运输量的增长是货物运输能源消耗增长的主要驱动力,同时运输结构中能耗强度较高的运输方式市场份额的增加加剧了这种增长的趋势,而技术进步带来的能耗强度的降低不足以抑制能源消耗的增加。货物运输能源消耗增长趋势不可避免,需要综合规划,促进交通运输业的可持续发展。
Based the analysis on the relation of energy consumption with energy consumption intensity, transport structure and turnover in freight transport, the complete decomposition model is used to quantitatively analyse the effect of 3 factors on freight transport energy consumption from 1990 to 2007. The result shows that the dramatic growth in freight turnover is the main driving force of the increase of freight transport energy consumption, the increase of high energy consumption transport mode share intensified the increase, while the decline in the energy intensity of transport consumption mode brought from technology improvement is not been sufficient to restrain the growth of freight transport energy consumption. So the growth trend in freight transport energy consumption is unavoidable. And the integrated measures should be taken to promote sustainable development of transportation.
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期153-158,共6页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC20B10)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2011JBM243)
关键词
运输经济
货物运输
完全分解模型
能源消耗
运输结构
transport economy
freight transport
complete decomposition model
energy consumption
transport structure
