摘要
审计预警功能实现,需要有一套完整的预警指标体系和预警方法。本文通过格兰杰因果检验构建财政审计预警指标体系,应用主成分分析法确定财政审计预警指标权重,合成财政审计预警指数,并对我国财政审计进行了预警。通过研究得出:直接隐性风险是影响财政审计的重要风险;目前我国财政审计预警警度处于中警状态。审计机关在审计实践中应该关注财政审计预警警度变化,确定财政审计关键点和审计力度,预防政府财务危机发生,确保国家财政安全。
Achieving audit early warning function,we need a complete set of early warning indicators and early warning methods.The paper uses granger causality test to build an early warning indicators system for financial audit,and uses principal component analysis method to determine the weight of early warning indicators.Then it synthesizes financial audit warning index,and conducts the early warning for China＇s financial audit.By studying,we get that the direct implicit risk has an important impact for financial audit.China＇s current early warning alarm degree is at the middle warning,so the financial risk is greater.In this situation,audit institutions should focus on the early warning alarm degree changes of the financial audit in the audit practice,and determine the key points of financial audit and audit efforts to prevent the government financial crisis and ensure the national financial security.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期47-59,共13页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
关键词
财政审计预警
预警指标
格兰杰因果检验
主成分分析
financial audit early warning
early warning index
Granger causality test
principal component analysis
