摘要
以天山北坡为实验区,采用2002—2008年精河、乌苏、石河子、蔡家湖4个气象站的气象数据,进行月的水分平衡及其各分量的多年平均值计算,然后计算各气候常数;基于气候常数计算气候适宜蒸散量、气候适宜补水、气候适宜径流量、气候适宜失水量,确定月正常气候所需的水量,即气候适宜降水量;进而计算水分距平,最终确定研究区的帕默尔干旱指数。对帕默尔干旱指数与本地的历史文献记录的实际干旱情况进行对比,验证了帕默尔干旱指数模式的可应用性,并得出了研究区内4站点的帕默尔干旱指数计算公式,根据该指数计算的结果与实际的旱情记录相符合。
With the meteorological data collected in Jinghe,Wusu,Shihezi and Caijiahu in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains from 2002 to 2008,a study was carried out to calculate the monthly hydraulic equilibrium,the mean value of each component of the equilibrium,the climate constants,and the properly climatic evapotranspiration,water supply,runoff,water loss and precipitation were estimated in accordance to the climate constants.Finally,the water anomaly index was calculated and the Palmer drought index was formed.By comparing the Palmer index model with the historical records,the applicability of the Palmer model in the studied area was verified.A formula was concluded for forecasting the drought in Jinghe,Shihezi,Wusu and Cai Jiahu area.
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期249-257,共9页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31260112)
中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所开放课题基金项目(sqj2010016)资助
关键词
天山北坡
绿洲
帕默尔干旱指数
干旱
the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains
oasis
Palmer drought severity index
drought
