摘要
以1991～2010年中国财经支农资金与农民收入的数据为基础,通过格兰杰因果关系检验,发现增加财政支农资金是提高农民收入的格兰杰原因;通过单位根检验,发现农民收入、财政支农资金都是非平稳时间序列,但通过二阶差分后可变成平稳序列;二者存在长期协整关系,但短期内可能失衡。因此,长期来看,应建立财政支农资金稳定增长的投入机制;当务之急是创新财政支农资金的投入方式,提高使用效率,确保农民收入持续增长。
This paper analyzes the relationship between both financial funds spending on agriculture and farmers＇ incomes from 1991 to 2010, it finds that increasing funds spending on agriculture is the Granger cause of enhancing farmers＇ incomes through Granger test of causality; Result shows that both financial funds spending on agriculture and farmers＇ incomes are not stationary time series through unit root test, but they can become stationary time series through by second difference, it also finds financial funds spending on agriculture and farmers＇ incomes are Cointegration in the long term, however, they may be imbalance in the short term. Therefore, it should establish a mechanism for financial funds spending on agriculture steady increases in the long term, and innovate the spending pattern of financial funds spending on agriculture, enhancing the efficiency in the use of financial funds spending on agriculture any time soon, ensuring to increase farmers＇ incomes. ＇
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期42-46,共5页
Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(10ZD&015
11XJY019)
关键词
财政支农资金
农民收入
格兰杰因果关系检验
单位根检验
协整
financial funds spending on agriculture
farmers＇ incomes
Granger test of causality
unit root test
Cointegra-tion
