摘要
针对山区滑移模型预测参数选取困难的问题,提出了山区滑移模型统一预测参数的求解方案。在收集、分析山西省主要矿区14个具有代表性的地表移动观测站数据的基础上,将山区采动滑移模型预测参数和相同地质采矿条件下的概率积分法最大下沉预测值作为控制向量,以最大下沉实测值作为输出向量,采用最小二乘非线性拟合优化算法求解,得到了统一预测参数(A=7.63,P=1.60,t=3.40)。实例分析结果表明,应用统一预测参数进行山区开采沉陷预计得到的下沉、水平移动预测值的平均相对误差分别为9%和21%,满足工程精度要求。
In this paper, in view of the difficulty to choose prediction parameters of ground movement model in mountain area caused by coal mining, the solution scheme of the uniform prediction parame- ters for ground movement model were put forward. After colleting and analyzing the ground movement data of 14 representative observation stations in Shanxi Province, then considering the uniform predic- tion parameters of the model and the maximum subsidence values predicted by probability integral method as the control vector, and the maximum measured subsidence values as the output vector, the uniform prediction parameters were finally obtained, that is, A=7.63, P=-1.60, and t=3.40, by using least squares nonlinear fitting optimization algorithm. The example analysis results show that the average relative errors of the predicted subsidence values and horizontal movement values were 9% and 21%, respectively, when using the uniform prediction parameters, which can meet the demands of engineering precision.
出处
《采矿与安全工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2013年第1期107-111,共5页
Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51074139)
国土环境与灾害监测国家测绘局重点实验室开放基金项目(LEDM2011B10)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目
关键词
山区
开采沉陷
地表移动观测站
概率积分法
地表滑移预测模型
统一参数
mountain area
mining subsidence： ground movement observation station： probabilityintegral method： ground movement prediction model
uniform parameter
