摘要
本文在理论分析基础上,提出我国国际短期资本流动的影响因素主要包括有中美利差、广义货币供应量、价格指数、人民币汇率以及资产价格等因素,并运用向量误差修正模型(VECM)进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,中国国际短期资本流动的主要动因为货币政策冲击、资产价格和人民币汇率升值,货币供给与国际短期资本流动具有双向作用机制,资产价格和人民币升值对国际短期资本流动具有单项作用机制。因此,要增强货币政策稳健性,抑制资产价格泡沫,推动人民币汇率市场化改革,改变单向升值为双向浮动,以防范国际短期资本流动冲击。
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper studies the main influence factors about the international short-term capital flows, including broad measure of money supply, price index,the RMB exchange rate ,asset prices by testing the influences with vector error correction model （ VECM ）. The results show that the main reason of the China＇ s international short-term capital flows is monetary policy shock, asset prices and the RMB appreciation. The money supply and international short-term capital flows have two-way mecha- nism, but asset prices and the RMB appreciation to international short-term capital flows have single action mechanism.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期138-143,共6页
Economic Survey
关键词
短期资本
流动
人民币升值
资产价格
货币冲击
向量误差
International Short-term Capital Flows
the RMB Appreciation
Monetary Policy Shock
Asset Prices
Vector Error Correc-tion Model （VECM）
